Annual Report » Peak Oil Barrel. This is a guest post by “Political Economist” and does not necessarily represent the opinions of Ron Patterson. World Energy 2. 01. Annual Report“Political Economist”June 2. The purpose of this annual report is to provide an analytical framework evaluating the development of world energy supply and its impact on the global economy. The report projects the world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and other energies from 2.

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It also projects the overall world energy consumption, gross world economic product, and energy efficiency from 2. The basic analytical tool is Hubbert Linearization, first proposed by American geologist M. King Hubbert (Hubbert 1.

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Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics. Other statistical methods and some official projections will also be used where they are relevant. Past experience with Hubbert Linearization suggests that Hubbert Linearization exercise tends to underestimate the ultimately recoverable oil and natural gas resources. To mitigate this “pessimistic” bias, I use the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s official projection to project US oil and natural gas production from 2. About two years ago, I posted “World Energy 2.

Peak Oil Barrel (Political Economist 2. The posts can be found here: World Energy 2.

Part 1)World Energy 2. Part 2)World Energy 2. Part 3)The 2. 01. It finds that world production of oil, natural gas, and coal may peak between 2. As the supply of fossil fuels declines and the renewable energies do not grow sufficiently rapidly, the world energy consumption is projected to peak in 2.

World carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning are projected to peak in 2. However, the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from 2. RCP 4. 5 projected in the IPCC Fifth Assessment report, which may lead to long- term global warming of 3 degrees Celsius relative to the pre- industrial The summary statistics from the 2. Table 1). These can be compared with the summary statistics reported towards the end of this report. Since 2. 01. 4, world energy conditions have significantly changed. Among the most important developments, the US production of oil and natural gas surged, leading to the collapse of world oil prices; China’s coal consumption and production have declined since 2.

This report will show that this hope may be premature. World Energy 2. 01. According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, world primary energy consumption reached 1. BP 2. 01. 6). From 2. World oil consumption (including biofuels) was 4,3.

From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World natural gas consumption was 3,1. From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World coal consumption was 3,8.

From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World consumption of nuclear electricity was 5.

From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World consumption of hydro, geothermal and biomass electricity was 1,0. From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World consumption of wind and solar electricity was 2. From 2. 01. 0 to 2. According to World Bank and IMF data, gross world product (global economic output) was 1.

From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World average energy efficiency was 8,1. From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning were 3. From 2. 01. 0 to 2. World average emissions intensity of gross world product was 0. From 2. 01. 0 to 2.

World average emissions intensity of primary energy consumption was 2. From 2. 01. 0 to 2. Figure 1 compares the historical world economic growth rates and the primary energy consumption growth rates from 1. The primary energy consumption growth rate has an intercept of - 0. That is, primary energy consumption has an “autonomous” tendency to fall by 1. When economic growth rate rises above zero, an increase in economic growth rate by one percentage point is associated with an increase in primary energy consumption by 0.

R- square for the linear trend is 0. Oil. World oil production (including crude oil and natural gas liquids) was 4,3. In 2. 01. 5, Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest oil producer by energy content; Saudi Arabia produced 5. The United States was the world’s largest oil producer by volume; the US produced 5. The Russian Federation was the world’s third largest oil producer; Russia produced 5.

Figure 2 shows the historical and projected US oil production from 1. Theprojection is based on the US Energy Information Administration’s reference case scenario of the US oil production from 2. EIA 2. 01. 6a), extended to 2. Watch Wicked Little Things Streaming. The US cumulative oil production up to 2. EIA’s current projection implies that the US cumulative oil production will be 4. US ultimately recoverable oil resources will be 1.

Hubbert linearization applied to the EIA projection from 2. US oil production will not peak until 2. Figure 3 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding the US) oil production.

The world (excluding the US) cumulative oil production up to 2. The linear trend from 2. US) ultimately recoverable oil resources will be 3. Regression R- square is 0. Year 2. 00. 9 is selected as the beginning year in estimating the linear trend because it was a year of global economic recession. Other things being equal, a recession year tends to have a lower current production to cumulative production ratio and result in a larger amount of estimated ultimately recoverable resources. Figure 4 shows the historical projected world (excluding the US) oil production from 1.

The world (excluding the US) oil production is projected to peak in 2. Figure 5 shows the historical and projected world production of liquid fuels. The world production of liquid fuels is the sum of the US oil production, the world (excluding the US) oil production, and the biofuels production. Projection of world biofuels production from 2. EIA (2. 01. 6b), extended to 2. World production of liquid fuels is projected to peak in 2. Natural Gas. World natural gas production was 3,5.

In 2. 01. 5, the United States was the world’s largest natural gas producer; the US produced 7. The Russian Federation was the world’s second largest natural gas producer; Russia produced 5. Watch It`S Kind Of A Funny Story Putlocker. Iran was the world’s third largest natural gas producer; Iran produced 1.

Figure 6 shows the historical and projected US natural gas production from 1. The projection is based on the US Energy Information Administration’s reference case scenario of the US natural gas production from 2.

EIA 2. 01. 6a), extended to 2.